Deployable capital equals near-term liquidity minus minimum buffer, near-term known obligations, and tax reserve, plus weighted near-term inflows.
Liquidity risk is Red; the lowest forecast cash is $4.32M.
Inside 180 days; excludes paid and cancelled items.
Probability-weighted expected inflows inside the near-term horizon.
Early warnings
Liquidity warnings that matter this year
$15.9M of Capital Calls plus tax reserves equals 56% of near-term liquidity.
Fidelity Trust Money Market Account balance is dated Jun 11, 2026.
$2.80M Summit Creek Growth Fund IV distribution expected Aug 15, 2026 is low confidence.
Money location
Where the money sits
Bank, brokerage, trust cash, and money market balances.
Annuity withdrawal capacity shown separately from cash.
Foundation reserve excluded from deployable capital.
Life policy and credit facility capacity excluded by default.
Forecast
Liquidity over time
Needs attention next
Operational bottlenecks
Manual was due Jun 20, 2026 and remains marked overdue.
Source: Synthetic Manual Subscription True-Up.md - Low confidence
Cedar Ridge has a 4.2 million call due July 9, 2026.
Source: Synthetic Cedar Ridge July Capital Call.pdf - Medium confidence
The K-1 reserve remains low confidence until the K-3 follow-up is resolved.
Source: Synthetic 2025 K-1 Package.pdf - Low confidence
The Fidelity trust source is dated June 11, 2026, older than the 14-day freshness threshold.
Source: Synthetic Fidelity Trust Summary.png - Medium confidence
The K-3 follow-up source says accountant input is needed before reserve confidence can move above low.
Source: Synthetic K-3 Accountant Follow-Up.md - Low confidence
Summit Creek expected distribution is included at 60 percent probability but needs review.
Source: Synthetic Summit Creek Distribution Notice.pdf - Low confidence
Scenario check
Can we commit another $10M?
Downside assumptions reserve the full commitment and delay distributions.